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 Topic:  Chili Bar - 2017 Release Predictions 

Forums -> Archive -> Chili Bar - 2017 Release Predictions Page 1 of 1
Posted to flow site: So. American - At Chili BarLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
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chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 10, 2017Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2017 Release Predictions
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
TueJan 107386 AFNo Recreational Release
WedJan 117386 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuJan 127386 AFNo Recreational Release
FriJan 137386 AFNo Recreational Release
SatJan 147386 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
SunJan 157386 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
MonJan 167386 AFNo Recreational Release
TueJan 177386 AFNo Recreational Release

Note that the above is what SMUD expect to release, but they don't control spill (or the weather, or snowmelt) so suggest adding a fudge factor to account for such unknowns.

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 3700 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 26, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
WedJan 255183 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuJan 263597 AFNo Recreational Release
FriJan 273615 AFNo Recreational Release
SatJan 284461 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
SunJan 294452 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
MonJan 303942 AFNo Recreational Release
TueJan 313784 AFNo Recreational Release
WedFeb 13625 AFNo Recreational Release

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2250 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 1, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
WedFeb 12152 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuFeb 23195 AFNo Recreational Release
FriFeb 34061 AFNo Recreational Release
SatFeb 44411 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
SunFeb 54164 AF1300 cfs for 3 hours
MonFeb 64085 AFNo Recreational Release
TueFeb 74411 AFNo Recreational Release
WedFeb 84411 AFNo Recreational Release

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2200 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 8, 2017Post Subject: The Chili Bar water year type has changed to Wet
The B120 report for February came out today, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 5.610 MAF (million acre-feet).  As a result, the water year type for this month is Wet.  (Yay!)

The immediate effect is that we will continue to get Saturday and Sunday releases, from 9AM until noon, but from now on the release will be 1500 cfs (instead of 1300 cfs).  Even better: from March 1 onward, there will be scheduled releases every day, and weekend flows will be higher and longer than now.  Good times ahead.

Of course we aren't seeing much of a difference yet, since the rains are keeping Chili Bar flows high most of the time.  However, eventually the rains will taper off.

The Wet designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around March 10.  Check back then for an update.

In the meantime, the scheduled release page shows releases for a Wet water year type through the end of March.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 9, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
ThuFeb 94411 AFNo Recreational Release
FriFeb 104396 AFNo Recreational Release
SatFeb 114287 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
SunFeb 123959 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
MonFeb 134031 AFNo Recreational Release
TueFeb 144411 AFNo Recreational Release
WedFeb 154118 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuFeb 164213 AFNo Recreational Release

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2150 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 14, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
TueFeb 144411 AFNo Recreational Release
WedFeb 154118 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuFeb 164213 AFNo Recreational Release
FriFeb 174349 AFNo Recreational Release
SatFeb 184349 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
SunFeb 194349 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
MonFeb 204349 AFNo Recreational Release
TueFeb 214349 AFNo Recreational Release

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2150 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 21, 2017
Computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact).  The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.

Thanks to Jansen Wendlandt for pointing the way on the above-mentioned computations.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 21, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
TueFeb 214272 AFNo Recreational Release
WedFeb 224272 AFNo Recreational Release
ThuFeb 234272 AFNo Recreational Release
FriFeb 245332 AFNo Recreational Release
SatFeb 257452 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
SunFeb 267452 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
MonFeb 277452 AFNo Recreational Release
TueFeb 287452 AFNo Recreational Release

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 3700 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 8, 2017
SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week.  In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:

DayDateInflowRelease
TueMar 73726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
WedMar 83726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
ThuMar 93726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
FriMar 103726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
SatMar 113726 AF1750 cfs for 6 hours
SunMar 123726 AF1750 cfs for 6 hours
MonMar 133726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours
TueMar 143726 AF1500 cfs for 3 hours

Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 1850 cfs.  Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones.  Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'.  Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more).  Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 9, 2017
The B120 report for March came out yesterday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.43 MAF (million acre-feet).  The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.

So wet that computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact).  The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.  Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 12, 2017
SMUD reports that "White Rock generation releases are becoming more volatile due to the evolving energy market, which continues to absorb increasing volumes of solar and wind resources, however, SMUD will assure that PG&E has sufficient water to provide the [scheduled] recreational flows".

The translation of this is that SMUD are no longer providing us with general release predictions.  However, they will continue to provide at least enough water to meet the Chili Bar Release Schedule.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 12, 2017
The B120 report for April came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.43 MAF (million acre-feet), which is the same as last month.  The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.

So wet that computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact).  The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.  Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 12, 2017
The B120 report for May came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.81 MAF (million acre-feet), which is slighly more than last month.  The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.

This is the last B120 report for the year.  The Wet designation will persist until the next B120 report comes out around February 10, 2018.  See the Chili Bar scheduled release page for scheduled release flows and times.

Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
Forums -> Archive -> Chili Bar - 2017 Release Predictions Page 1 of 1