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 Topic:  NF Stanislaus predicted flows 

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Posted to flow site: No. Stanislaus - At AveryLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
 Author  Message 
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Aug 24, 2010Post Subject: NF Stanislaus predicted flows
I picked this up a day late, sorry, but Mike Koza reports that per NCPA, predicted flows at Calaveras Big Trees State Park were:

485 cfs today (Tuesday)

485 cfs tomorrow (Wednesday) if forecast remains hot

200 cfs Thursday

Wednesday and Thursday flows subject to change without notice
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Sep 2, 2010
Another communique from Mike Koza:

"Per Norm Worthington (NCPA), forecasted flows are for McKay Point (Avery) gauge (end of lower run, just above reservoir):

450-490 cfs Friday 9/3, through 9AM Sat

Ramping to 340 cfs at noon, ramping down to 210 cfs by eve

210 cfs Sunday"
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Sep 20, 2010
Another communique from Mike Koza:

Forecast releases at Big Trees State Park, courtesy of Norm Worthington at NCPA:

Tuesday 480 cfs

Wednesday-Thursday 350 cfs

Friday 300 cfs

Sat-Sun 200 cfs
Thomas M
Member
Posted: Sep 22, 2010
So much for the 350 Wed-Thurs. I was all ready to go this morning for a wonderful two day trip and then my dreams of perfect flow on Hells were destroyed. Any reason why the forecast changed?
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Sep 25, 2010
No idea what happened this time around, but here are some general comments.  I should probably put a version of this on the FAQ page, but for now:

The "official" release schedules, published by the agency/utility ahead of time, like for instance the Trinity, SF Feather, SF American, Tuolumne ... these are all pretty darned reliable.  The operators take it seriously: unless a real emergency comes along, the releases will happen; you can rely on them.  Releases specifically aimed at flow studies seem to be pretty reliable too.

Easy to think all predictions are (or "should" be) equally reliable, but they aren't.  Now I'm confident that the word-of-mouth predictions about Fordyce, NF Stan etc are made in good faith at the time, but plans change, you know?  Sometimes the releases are exactly as predicted, sometimes completely different, often quite similar but frustratingly different.  Plan around them of course, but please don't rely on them, because far as I can see they're just someone's best guess, based on current conditions at the time.  Frustrating, but nevertheless some kind of boatable release happens more often than not, so we're still ahead.

How to tell the two apart?  Look at the language and presentation .  An example of an official published release schedules for the Tuolumne.  An example of unofficial predictions, also for the Tuolume.

grebsnig
Member
Posted: Sep 30, 2010Post Subject: Flows through the weekend
Any idea if the current flow of 700 cfs will hold through the weekend? Even if it is just a prediction I would gladly accept any insight. Thanks.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Oct 1, 2010
Mike Koza writes: "275 all weekend per NCPA".
grebsnig
Member
Posted: Oct 7, 2010Post Subject: Predictions for 8-10/10
I see the graph of Highland starting to rise. Any predictions for NF Stan from Mike Kozak for the weekend? Thanks so much Chris for all your work!

-Brian
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Oct 12, 2010
Mike Koza writes (today, Tuesday): "Avery flows should be rising to 580 cfs today and 500-600 tomorrow, per NCPA."
dansadowski
Member
Posted: Oct 12, 2010Post Subject: Weekend Flows?
Do you think that the flow is going to hold through Saturday the 16th?
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Oct 12, 2010
I just post what Mike sends me verbatim, so you know everything I know . But as a general thing they don't release on weekends, no. They tend to do releases during the week since electricity prices are higher then, then drop back to the 300 cfs range (or sometimes even 200 cfs) for the weekend.
wasiel
Member
Posted: Oct 14, 2010
Chris, could you check with Mike Koza to see if we will have 280 cfs at Avery for the upcoming weekend? That is still a runnable level for an inflatable kayak.
________________________________
Jeff W
kflow
Member
Posted: Oct 15, 2010Post Subject: Weekend Forecast - October 16-17
Per NCPA, flows are expected to remain near current flow, 250 cfs at Avery.

Mike Koza, Kflow
wasiel
Member
Posted: Oct 18, 2010Post Subject: Weekend Forecast - October 16-17
Mike, thank you for posting the forecast for the weekend. Because of that information we were able to do the Sourgrass Campground to McKay's Point run on Saturday and Sunday and we had a great time! Thanks again! - Jeff
________________________________
Jeff W
kflow
Member
Posted: Oct 18, 2010Post Subject: Forecast for week of October 18
Per NCPA, in anticipation of maintenance later this week, McKay reservoir will be drawn down, so flows at Avery will be at the minimum this week, approx. 170-180 cfs, unless it rains.
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