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chris
Site Admin
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Posted: Jan 7, 2014 Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2014 Release Predictions
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Jan 7 | 486 AF
| | Wed | Jan 8 | 486 AF
| | Thu | Jan 9 | 486 AF
| | Fri | Jan 10 | 486 AF
| | Sat | Jan 11 | 872 AF
| | Sun | Jan 12 | 871 AF
| | Mon | Jan 13 | 485 AF
| | Tue | Jan 14 | 485 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 440 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Jan 21 | 486 AF
| | Wed | Jan 22 | 765 AF
| | Thu | Jan 23 | 765 AF
| | Fri | Jan 24 | 766 AF
| | Sat | Jan 25 | 834 AF
| | Sun | Jan 26 | 834 AF
| | Mon | Jan 27 | 710 AF
| | Tue | Jan 28 | 710 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The South Fork American/Silver Creek drainage currently has a Dry water year designation, as did the previous year. This year so far is clearly Dry or worse, making for three such poor water years in a row. This in turn means that we're heading for a Super Dry water year designation when the February B120 report comes out. Unless the skies open soon, which seems unlikely, we can expect the Super Dry designation to persist for some time. Assuming so, the short-term result is that from three days after the February B120 report comes out (around Feb 10) until the end of March, we can expect to lose Sunday scheduled releases below Chili Bar.
Translating all this into specific dates, we can expect Saturdays-only scheduled releases from the weekend of February 15 through the end of March. Even if the critically dry year continues, in April we go to a Saturday, Sunday, Monday release through Memorial Day, at which time we go to a 5 day a week release, with nothing scheduled on Tuesday/Wednesday.
The scheduled release page has been updated to reflect this scenario. If things change, I'll post again as soon as the new schedule becomes known.
We desperately need rain and/or snow.
Lots of it.
Soon.
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Edited once. Last edited by chris Jan 23, 2014.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Jan 29 | 436 AF
| | Thu | Jan 30 | 436 AF
| | Fri | Jan 31 | 436 AF
| | Sat | Feb 1 | 790 AF
| | Sun | Feb 2 | 790 AF
| | Mon | Feb 3 | 436 AF
| | Tue | Feb 4 | 436 AF
| | Wed | Feb 5 | 436 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 390 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Feb 4 | 436 AF
| | Wed | Feb 5 | 436 AF
| | Thu | Feb 6 | 436 AF
| | Fri | Feb 7 | 436 AF
| | Sat | Feb 8 | 790 AF
| | Sun | Feb 9 | 790 AF
| | Mon | Feb 10 | 436 AF
| | Tue | Feb 11 | 436 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 390 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Posted: Feb 10, 2014Post Subject: Water year type is now Super Dry
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| The B120 report for February came out today, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 0.74 MAF (million acre-feet). This is within the Critically Dry range, but since last year was Dry, the actual designation becomes Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).
The result is that we lose Sunday scheduled releases below Chili Bar for the near future. However, even if the super dry year continues, in April we go to a Saturday, Sunday, Monday release through Memorial Day, and thereafter we go to a 5 day a week release schedule. The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.
The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around March 10. If we have really significant precipitation between now and then, the situation could improve after March 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects. So, be sure to check back around March 10.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Feb 12 | 1457 AF
| | Thu | Feb 13 | 921 AF
| | Fri | Feb 14 | 759 AF
| | Sat | Feb 15 | 730 AF
| | Sun | Feb 16 | 482 AF
| | Mon | Feb 17 | 327 AF
| | Tue | Feb 18 | 327 AF
| | Wed | Feb 19 | 327 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 360 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Feb 19 | 327 AF
| | Thu | Feb 20 | 327 AF
| | Fri | Feb 21 | 327 AF
| | Sat | Feb 22 | 723 AF
| | Sun | Feb 23 | 327 AF
| | Mon | Feb 24 | 327 AF
| | Tue | Feb 25 | 327 AF
| | Wed | Feb 26 | 327 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 360 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Feb 25 | 646 AF
| | Wed | Feb 26 | 716 AF
| | Thu | Feb 27 | 1535 AF
| | Fri | Feb 28 | 1496 AF
| | Sat | Mar 1 | 839 AF
| | Sun | Mar 2 | 356 AF
| | Mon | Mar 3 | 1217 AF
| | Tue | Mar 4 | 1428 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Mar 4 | 921 AF
| | Wed | Mar 5 | 1344 AF
| | Thu | Mar 6 | 2044 AF
| | Fri | Mar 7 | 2361 AF
| | Sat | Mar 8 | 1293 AF
| | Sun | Mar 9 | 327 AF
| | Mon | Mar 10 | 3129 AF
| | Tue | Mar 11 | 2179 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 650 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Mar 11 | 1571 AF
| | Wed | Mar 12 | 1601 AF
| | Thu | Mar 13 | 1442 AF
| | Fri | Mar 14 | 1286 AF
| | Sat | Mar 15 | 747 AF
| | Sun | Mar 16 | 464 AF
| | Mon | Mar 17 | 1398 AF
| | Tue | Mar 18 | 1450 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 370 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for March came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 0.935 MAF (million acre-feet). This is within the Dry range, but since the last two years were also Dry, the actual designation becomes Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).
The result is that we continue to lose Sunday scheduled releases below Chili Bar until the end of March. However, even if the super dry year continues, in April we go to a Saturday, Sunday, Monday release through Memorial Day, and thereafter we go to a 5 day a week release schedule. The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.
The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around April 10. If we have really significant precipitation between now and then, the situation could improve after April 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects. So, be sure to check back around April 10.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Mar 19 | 866 AF
| | Thu | Mar 20 | 878 AF
| | Fri | Mar 21 | 874 AF
| | Sat | Mar 22 | 831 AF
| | Sun | Mar 23 | 1216 AF
| | Mon | Mar 24 | 816 AF
| | Tue | Mar 25 | 806 AF
| | Wed | Mar 26 | 820 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 410 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| By the way, it might appear from the preceding post that SMUD intend to release boatable flows Sunday (1216 AF) rather than Saturday (831 AF). However, from their email, SMUD clearly does see Saturday (not Sunday) as the release day, so expect at least the normal scheduled release on Saturday.
What's in question is what flow they intend to release Sunday, and when. Will there be boatable releases Sunday that we can take advantage of? Don't know yet. Will post more when we know more.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD responded with:
"The forecast of Sunday releases, which are higher than Saturday's, is largely due to our near-term runoff forecast, which shows more runoff on Sunday. The Sunday releases could dissipate quickly, while the Saturday recreational flows will be there."
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