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chris
Site Admin
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Posted: Jan 12, 2016 Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2016 Release Predictions
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Jan 12 | 988 AF
| | Wed | Jan 13 | 2309 AF
| | Thu | Jan 14 | 2340 AF
| | Fri | Jan 15 | 1795 AF
| | Sat | Jan 16 | 2915 AF
| | Sun | Jan 17 | 2890 AF
| | Mon | Jan 18 | 3527 AF
| | Tue | Jan 19 | 3908 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1450 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Jan 19 | 4226 AF
| | Wed | Jan 20 | 3066 AF
| | Thu | Jan 21 | 2075 AF
| | Fri | Jan 22 | 1944 AF
| | Sat | Jan 23 | 1952 AF
| | Sun | Jan 24 | 1529 AF
| | Mon | Jan 25 | 2253 AF
| | Tue | Jan 26 | 2277 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 975 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 bulletin came out yesterday, and the Water-Year Forecast for February is 2570 thousand acre-feet (or 2.57 MAF). This is right at the top end of "Below Normal" (the "Above Normal" threshold is 2.6 MAF). This is still a vast improvement over the previous "Super Dry" designation.
The bottom line is that the water year type for the next month is "Below Normal". This in turns means that there'll be Sunday releases through the rest of February, and we'll have releases every day except Wednesday starting in March.
The schedule until the end of March, based on the current "Below Normal" water year designation, is posted here.
Note though that things could change (for better, or worse) when the March B120 bulletin comes out, and if it does the schedule will change from March 10 or so onward. So, be sure to check back around March 10.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Feb 16 | 2256 AF
| | Wed | Feb 17 | 2303 AF
| | Thu | Feb 18 | 3484 AF
| | Fri | Feb 19 | 3472 AF
| | Sat | Feb 20 | 3507 AF
| | Sun | Feb 21 | 2458 AF
| | Mon | Feb 22 | 3480 AF
| | Tue | Feb 23 | 3496 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1750 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Feb 23 | 2600 AF
| | Wed | Feb 24 | 2608 AF
| | Thu | Feb 25 | 2604 AF
| | Fri | Feb 26 | 2668 AF
| | Sat | Feb 27 | 2113 AF
| | Sun | Feb 28 | 2233 AF
| | Mon | Feb 29 | 3017 AF
| | Tue | Mar 1 | 2663 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1050 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Mar 1 | 1549 AF
| | Wed | Mar 2 | 1522 AF
| | Thu | Mar 3 | 1510 AF
| | Fri | Mar 4 | 1855 AF
| | Sat | Mar 5 | 1061 AF
| | Sun | Mar 6 | 2272 AF
| | Mon | Mar 7 | 2754 AF
| | Tue | Mar 8 | 1407 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 525 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for March came out Tuesday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 2.365 MAF (million acre-feet). This is down from last month, but still within the Below Normal range.
The result is that scheduled releases below Chili Bar will continue unchanged. See the Chili Bar release schedule for details. However, note that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them.
The Below Normal designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around April 10. If the water year designation changes at that time, the scheduled release schedule will change to match. So, be sure to check back around April 10.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Mar 23 | 5222 AF
| | Thu | Mar 24 | 5603 AF
| | Fri | Mar 25 | 5552 AF
| | Sat | Mar 26 | 6004 AF
| | Sun | Mar 27 | 4820 AF
| | Mon | Mar 28 | 4695 AF
| | Tue | Mar 29 | 4446 AF
| | Wed | Mar 30 | 4324 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 3000 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Apr 5 | 5004 AF
| | Wed | Apr 6 | 5642 AF
| | Thu | Apr 7 | 6058 AF
| | Fri | Apr 8 | 6299 AF
| | Sat | Apr 9 | 5498 AF
| | Sun | Apr 10 | 5193 AF
| | Mon | Apr 11 | 5589 AF
| | Tue | Apr 12 | 5455 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2700 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for April came out yesterday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 2.880 MAF (million acre-feet). This is up a bit from last month, bringing the water year type for this month to Above Normal.
The result is that we also get Wednesday releases (i.e. we now get scheduled releases every day of the week). We also get higher and longer weekend releases, starting next weekend.
The schedule until the end of May, based on the current "Above Normal" water year designation, is posted here.
The Above Normal designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around May 10. Note though that things could change when the May B120 bulletin comes out, and if it does the schedule will change from May 10 or so onward. So, be sure to check back around May 10.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Apr 12 | 5438 AF
| | Wed | Apr 13 | 4899 AF
| | Thu | Apr 14 | 4373 AF
| | Fri | Apr 15 | 2888 AF
| | Sat | Apr 16 | 7098 AF
| | Sun | Apr 17 | 1422 AF
| | Mon | Apr 18 | 1057 AF
| | Tue | Apr 19 | 1057 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 3500 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Wed | Apr 20 | 4751 AF
| | Thu | Apr 21 | 4678 AF
| | Fri | Apr 22 | 4749 AF
| | Sat | Apr 23 | 4945 AF
| | Sun | Apr 24 | 4517 AF
| | Mon | Apr 25 | 4889 AF
| | Tue | Apr 26 | 4805 AF
| | Wed | Apr 27 | 4326 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2450 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | Apr 26 | 3928 AF
| | Wed | Apr 27 | 2466 AF
| | Thu | Apr 28 | 3939 AF
| | Fri | Apr 29 | 4210 AF
| | Sat | Apr 30 | 3022 AF
| | Sun | May 1 | 3090 AF
| | Mon | May 2 | 5810 AF
| | Tue | May 3 | 4318 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1500 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | May 3 | 2598 AF
| | Wed | May 4 | 3611 AF
| | Thu | May 5 | 4569 AF
| | Fri | May 6 | 5037 AF
| | Sat | May 7 | 4904 AF
| | Sun | May 8 | 4510 AF
| | Mon | May 9 | 3579 AF
| | Tue | May 10 | 3733 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2450 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:
| Tue | May 10 | 4072 AF
| | Wed | May 11 | 4742 AF
| | Thu | May 12 | 4795 AF
| | Fri | May 13 | 4860 AF
| | Sat | May 14 | 4612 AF
| | Sun | May 15 | 4367 AF
| | Mon | May 16 | 4713 AF
| | Tue | May 17 | 4710 AF
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Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2300 cfs. Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones. Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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