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 Topic:  Chili Bar - 2014 Release Predictions 

Forums -> Archive -> Chili Bar - 2014 Release Predictions Page 2 of 4
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Posted to flow site: So. American - At Chili BarLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
 Author  Message 
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 25, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMar 251152 AF
WedMar 261346 AF
ThuMar 271192 AF
FriMar 28582 AF
SatMar 29723 AF
SunMar 30441 AF
MonMar 311232 AF
TueApr 1937 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 360 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 6, 2014
According to the schedule, flows at Chili Bar should have been at 1300 cfs by 9AM today. However, releases were delayed, and the following explains why.

Bill Center (of Camp Lotus) called PG&E at 10AM. PG&E said they were aware of the schedule, however the computer had failed to start the Chili Bar unit up on time. PG&E then started the unit up (presumably using some manual process).
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 8, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 8725 AF
WedApr 91833 AF
ThuApr 102083 AF
FriApr 111763 AF
SatApr 12882 AF
SunApr 13880 AF
MonApr 142429 AF
TueApr 152018 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 440 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 12, 2014
The B120 report for April predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 1.000 MAF (million acre-feet).  This is within the Dry range, but since the last two years were also Dry, the actual designation becomes Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).

The result is that we continue with Saturday, Sunday and Monday releases through Memorial Day, and thereafter we go to a 5 day a week release schedule.  The scheduled release page reflects this scenario. 

The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around May 10.  If we have amazingly significant precipitation between now and then (unlikely), the situation could improve after May 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects.  So, be sure to check back around May 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 15, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 152183 AF
WedApr 161546 AF
ThuApr 171325 AF
FriApr 18984 AF
SatApr 191753 AF
SunApr 202045 AF
MonApr 212790 AF
TueApr 222337 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 875 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 23, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedApr 231997 AF
ThuApr 241580 AF
FriApr 251019 AF
SatApr 261585 AF
SunApr 271683 AF
MonApr 282247 AF
TueApr 291574 AF
WedApr 301221 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 800 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 29, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 291155 AF
WedApr 302364 AF
ThuMay 13072 AF
FriMay 22766 AF
SatMay 32064 AF
SunMay 41814 AF
MonMay 52366 AF
TueMay 61962 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1050 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 6, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMay 6951 AF
WedMay 71507 AF
ThuMay 81320 AF
FriMay 91448 AF
SatMay 101616 AF
SunMay 11986 AF
MonMay 121552 AF
TueMay 131621 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 800 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 13, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMay 131941 AF
WedMay 141404 AF
ThuMay 151469 AF
FriMay 161467 AF
SatMay 171911 AF
SunMay 182121 AF
MonMay 192739 AF
TueMay 201660 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 950 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 18, 2014
The CDEC B120 report for May predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 0.907 MAF (million acre-feet). This is at the bottom of the Dry range, though still within it. However, since the last two years were also Dry, the actual designation becomes Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).

This is the final report for the year, and the Super Dry designation is expected to remain in effect until around February 10, 2015.

The current Chili Bar release schedule reflects the Super Dry designation through the end of August. I'll update it with entries for the rest of the year and into early next year soon.
Edited once.  Last edited by chris May 13, 2015.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 22, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

ThuMay 222214 AF
FriMay 232277 AF
SatMay 241132 AF
SunMay 251221 AF
MonMay 261385 AF
TueMay 271143 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 575 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 27, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMay 271559 AF
WedMay 28906 AF
ThuMay 29808 AF
FriMay 30772 AF
SatMay 311094 AF
SunJun 11337 AF
MonJun 2959 AF
TueJun 3483 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 550 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 3, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJun 3436 AF
WedJun 4436 AF
ThuJun 5790 AF
FriJun 6790 AF
SatJun 7969 AF
SunJun 8969 AF
MonJun 9790 AF
TueJun 10436 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 480 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 10, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJun 10436 AF
WedJun 11436 AF
ThuJun 12790 AF
FriJun 13790 AF
SatJun 14969 AF
SunJun 15969 AF
MonJun 16790 AF
TueJun 17436 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 480 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jun 17, 2014
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJun 17464 AF
WedJun 18436 AF
ThuJun 19907 AF
FriJun 20907 AF
SatJun 211085 AF
SunJun 221085 AF
MonJun 23907 AF
TueJun 24563 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 550 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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