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chris
Site Admin
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Posted: Feb 4, 2009 Post Subject: Super Dry Water Year
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| This year's water type hasn't been determined yet, but based on current conditions, it looks like it will be designated as Super Dry. Assuming so, what this means in the short term is that we'll likely lose the Sunday releases we've been enjoying, from mid-February through the end of March. Medium-term, the schedule from April 1 through Memorial Day will likely be scheduled releases on only Mondays, Saturdays and Sundays. Longer-term, we can expect five sheduled release days per week from Memorial Day through Labor Day. The Dreamflows Chili Bar schedule page reflects this likely scenario, from now until the end of May.
The situation is reviewed about the middle of each month from mid-February through mid-May, and the release schedule revised accordingly. So nothing is cast in stone yet - for instance, a sudden deluge of rain/snow could alter everything. I'll update the schedules page as the season progresses and we can better see what the future holds. So, be sure to check back from time to time.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The recent precipitation will quite likely take us out of the current "Super Dry" designation and into a temporary "Below Normal" designation (temporary since the situation is reviewed each month until mid-May).
If we are upgraded to "Below Normal", the outlook looks much more promising ... amongst other good things, we should get Sunday releases back. We'll know for sure after the B120 report comes out early next week.
Will there be Sunday releases this weekend? According to the agreement, there's no official release. However, my guess is there'll be boatable flows anyway. I'll post here if I hear anything specific. Otherwise, check Chili Bar flow Saturday night, and then Sunday morning before heading out - if there are flows both times, figure they'll let it run through Sunday.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Bad news. The B120 bulletin came out today, and the Water-Year Forecast for March is only 1590 kAF (or 1.59 MAF). This is below the "Below Normal" threshold of 1.7 MAF. The bottom line is that we're still languishing in a "Super Dry" water year. This in turns means that there won't be any scheduled Sunday releases through the end of March (though of course there could be unscheduled releases any time). The schedule is therefore unchanged. Better do some serious precipitation dances, if we want the April B120 report to be any better.
Some good news, though. Hilde reports: "good news is one turbine is down at White Rock until April 14th so we are seeing the higher than normal flows on the SF as a result".
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD is kindly sharing their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar. For the following week, they expect to release about 2700 AF each day, which translates to an average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir of about 1350 cfs. Since the reservoir is small, we can expect an average release to the SFA of the same.
Don't rely on this too heavily, though ... first of all this is just their "expected" scenario, they could actually release far less or far more. Secondly, this is just the average - as you can see from the graph, the flow tends to fluctuate up and down a lot.
So what this tells me is to expect boatable flows most of the time, but the actual flow may vary a lot.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD has shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows. They expect to release 2660 AF tomorrow, dropping steadily to 2420 AF per day by the 28th, then staying steady at 2420 AF per day until the 31st.
This translates to about 1300 cfs average for the next couple of days, dropping to about 1200 cfs average thereafter. See previous post for thoughts on how to interpret these numbers.
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rivrock
Member
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| | Hi Chris I was curious to what your best guess is about there being boatable South Fork flows on friday April 3rd.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Posted: Mar 27, 2009Post Subject: Re:
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| | rivrock wrote: | | Hi Chris I was curious to what your best guess is about there being boatable South Fork flows on friday April 3rd. |
I think it's so hard to tell, being dam release and all. My best guess is that there will be boatable flows, though we'll be able to make a more informed guess next Monday or Tuesday, when SMUD make their next prediction. Think pure thoughts  ...
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD has shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows. They expect to release 2350 AF tomorrow, dropping steadily to 2230 AF per day by the 4th, then staying steady at 2230 AF per day until the 7th.
This translates to around 1150 cfs average. See March 17 post for thoughts on how to interpret these numbers.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD has shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows. They expect to release in the range 2135 to 2360 AF average each day.
This translates to around 1050 to 1150 cfs average. See March 17 post for thoughts on how to interpret these numbers.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Great news! The B120 bulletin came out yesterday, and the Water-Year Forecast for April is now 1895kAF (or 1.9 MAF). This is above the "Below Normal" threshold of 1.7 MAF. The bottom line is that takes us out of "Super Dry" and into a "Below Normal" water year.
If the May B120 bulletin is also "Below Normal" (not a done deal but quite likely) then it will change everything for the summer. This would give us an extra day of scheduled release per week, plus higher flows and longer release windows on the weekends.
Anyway - focusing on the current B120 report - what this means for the next month is as follows. Expect flows from 9am to noon every day except Wednesday. Expect 1500 cfs on Saturdays and Sundays, and 1300 cfs other days.
I've updated the Chili Bar calendar through the end of September, based on a "Below Normal" water year. Be aware, though, that this can still change - be sure to check back around May 10 for the final summer schedule.
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chris
Site Admin
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| | SMUD also shares that for the SF American below Chili Bar "The minimum stream flows are 250 cfs for both April and May."
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD has shared their predictions of average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows. They expect to release in the range 2000 to 2090 AF average each day.
This translates to around 1000 cfs average. See March 17 post for thoughts on how to interpret these numbers.
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