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 Topic:  Chili Bar - 2015 Release Predictions 

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Posted to flow site: So. American - At Chili BarLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
 Author  Message 
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 7, 2015Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2015 Release Predictions
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 6347 AF
WedJan 7511 AF
ThuJan 8494 AF
FriJan 9478 AF
SatJan 10834 AF
SunJan 11445 AF
MonJan 12431 AF
TueJan 13417 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 13, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 13537 AF
WedJan 14521 AF
ThuJan 15508 AF
FriJan 16499 AF
SatJan 17872 AF
SunJan 18487 AF
MonJan 19479 AF
TueJan 20470 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 440 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 20, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 20517 AF
WedJan 21683 AF
ThuJan 22327 AF
FriJan 23327 AF
SatJan 24851 AF
SunJan 25501 AF
MonJan 26504 AF
TueJan 27327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 27, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 27345 AF
WedJan 28646 AF
ThuJan 29517 AF
FriJan 30501 AF
SatJan 31870 AF
SunFeb 1483 AF
MonFeb 2471 AF
TueFeb 3468 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 430 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 3, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueFeb 3527 AF
WedFeb 4527 AF
ThuFeb 51245 AF
FriFeb 61517 AF
SatFeb 72802 AF
SunFeb 8997 AF
MonFeb 91632 AF
TueFeb 101421 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1400 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 12, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedFeb 114508 AF
ThuFeb 122244 AF
FriFeb 132066 AF
SatFeb 142390 AF
SunFeb 151999 AF
MonFeb 161748 AF
TueFeb 171766 AF
WedFeb 18915 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1200 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 12, 2015
The B120 report for February came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 1.435 MAF (million acre-feet).  This is within the Dry range, but since the last two years were Dry or worse, the actual designation is still Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).

The result is that we continue to lose Sunday scheduled releases below Chili Bar for the near future.  However, even if the Super Dry year continues, in April we go to a Saturday, Sunday, Monday release through Memorial Day, and thereafter we go to a 5 day a week release schedule. 

The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around March 10.  If we have significant precipitation between now and then, the situation could improve after March 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects.  So, be sure to check back around March 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 17, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueFeb 17327 AF
WedFeb 18327 AF
ThuFeb 19327 AF
FriFeb 20327 AF
SatFeb 21834 AF
SunFeb 22327 AF
MonFeb 23327 AF
TueFeb 24327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 25, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedFeb 25327 AF
ThuFeb 26327 AF
FriFeb 27327 AF
SatFeb 28834 AF
SunMar 1327 AF
MonMar 2327 AF
TueMar 3327 AF
WedMar 4327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 10, 2015
The B120 report for March came out yesterday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 1.155 MAF (million acre-feet).  This is down from last month, but still within the Dry range.  Since the last two years were Dry or worse, the actual designation is still Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).

The result is that we continue to lose Sunday scheduled releases below Chili Bar for the near future.  However, even if the Super Dry year continues, in April we go to a Saturday, Sunday, Monday release through Memorial Day, and thereafter we go to a 5 day a week release schedule. 

The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around April 10.  If we have significant precipitation between now and then (unlikely, but possible), the situation could improve after April 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects.  So, be sure to check back around April 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 17, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMar 17327 AF
WedMar 18327 AF
ThuMar 19327 AF
FriMar 20327 AF
SatMar 21834 AF
SunMar 22327 AF
MonMar 23327 AF
TueMar 24327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 31, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMar 31327 AF
WedApr 1327 AF
ThuApr 2327 AF
FriApr 3327 AF
SatApr 4834 AF
SunApr 5834 AF
MonApr 6834 AF
TueApr 7327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 8, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedApr 8327 AF
ThuApr 9327 AF
FriApr 10327 AF
SatApr 11834 AF
SunApr 12834 AF
MonApr 13834 AF
TueApr 14327 AF
WedApr 15327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 8, 2015
The B120 report for April came out today, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 0.870 MAF (million acre-feet).  This is down from last month, and is now in the Critically Dry range.  Since the last two years were Dry or worse, the actual designation is still Super Dry (which is the worst possible designation).

The Super Dry designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around May 10.  If we have significant precipitation between now and then (unlikely), the situation could improve after May 10, and if so the schedule will change in some respects.  So, be sure to check back around May 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 14, 2015
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 14327 AF
WedApr 15327 AF
ThuApr 16327 AF
FriApr 17327 AF
SatApr 18834 AF
SunApr 19834 AF
MonApr 20834 AF
TueApr 21327 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 420 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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