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 Topic:  Chili Bar - 2016 Release Predictions 

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Posted to flow site: So. American - At Chili BarLatest PostNext TopicPrev Topic
 Author  Message 
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 12, 2016Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2016 Release Predictions
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 12988 AF
WedJan 132309 AF
ThuJan 142340 AF
FriJan 151795 AF
SatJan 162915 AF
SunJan 172890 AF
MonJan 183527 AF
TueJan 193908 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1450 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Jan 19, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueJan 194226 AF
WedJan 203066 AF
ThuJan 212075 AF
FriJan 221944 AF
SatJan 231952 AF
SunJan 241529 AF
MonJan 252253 AF
TueJan 262277 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 975 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 9, 2016
The B120 bulletin came out yesterday, and the Water-Year Forecast for February is 2570 thousand acre-feet (or 2.57 MAF). This is right at the top end of "Below Normal" (the "Above Normal" threshold is 2.6 MAF). This is still a vast improvement over the previous "Super Dry" designation.

The bottom line is that the water year type for the next month is "Below Normal". This in turns means that there'll be Sunday releases through the rest of February, and we'll have releases every day except Wednesday starting in March.

The schedule until the end of March, based on the current "Below Normal" water year designation, is posted here.

Note though that things could change (for better, or worse) when the March B120 bulletin comes out, and if it does the schedule will change from March 10 or so onward. So, be sure to check back around March 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 16, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueFeb 162256 AF
WedFeb 172303 AF
ThuFeb 183484 AF
FriFeb 193472 AF
SatFeb 203507 AF
SunFeb 212458 AF
MonFeb 223480 AF
TueFeb 233496 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1750 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Feb 24, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueFeb 232600 AF
WedFeb 242608 AF
ThuFeb 252604 AF
FriFeb 262668 AF
SatFeb 272113 AF
SunFeb 282233 AF
MonFeb 293017 AF
TueMar 12663 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1050 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 1, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMar 11549 AF
WedMar 21522 AF
ThuMar 31510 AF
FriMar 41855 AF
SatMar 51061 AF
SunMar 62272 AF
MonMar 72754 AF
TueMar 81407 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 525 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 12, 2016
The B120 report for March came out Tuesday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 2.365 MAF (million acre-feet). This is down from last month, but still within the Below Normal range.

The result is that scheduled releases below Chili Bar will continue unchanged. See the Chili Bar release schedule for details. However, note that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them.

The Below Normal designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around April 10. If the water year designation changes at that time, the scheduled release schedule will change to match. So, be sure to check back around April 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Mar 24, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedMar 235222 AF
ThuMar 245603 AF
FriMar 255552 AF
SatMar 266004 AF
SunMar 274820 AF
MonMar 284695 AF
TueMar 294446 AF
WedMar 304324 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 3000 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 5, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 55004 AF
WedApr 65642 AF
ThuApr 76058 AF
FriApr 86299 AF
SatApr 95498 AF
SunApr 105193 AF
MonApr 115589 AF
TueApr 125455 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2700 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 9, 2016
The B120 report for April came out yesterday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 2.880 MAF (million acre-feet). This is up a bit from last month, bringing the water year type for this month to Above Normal.

The result is that we also get Wednesday releases (i.e. we now get scheduled releases every day of the week). We also get higher and longer weekend releases, starting next weekend.

The schedule until the end of May, based on the current "Above Normal" water year designation, is posted here.

The Above Normal designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around May 10.  Note though that things could change when the May B120 bulletin comes out, and if it does the schedule will change from May 10 or so onward. So, be sure to check back around May 10.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 12, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 125438 AF
WedApr 134899 AF
ThuApr 144373 AF
FriApr 152888 AF
SatApr 167098 AF
SunApr 171422 AF
MonApr 181057 AF
TueApr 191057 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 3500 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 20, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

WedApr 204751 AF
ThuApr 214678 AF
FriApr 224749 AF
SatApr 234945 AF
SunApr 244517 AF
MonApr 254889 AF
TueApr 264805 AF
WedApr 274326 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2450 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: Apr 26, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueApr 263928 AF
WedApr 272466 AF
ThuApr 283939 AF
FriApr 294210 AF
SatApr 303022 AF
SunMay 13090 AF
MonMay 25810 AF
TueMay 34318 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 1500 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 3, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMay 32598 AF
WedMay 43611 AF
ThuMay 54569 AF
FriMay 65037 AF
SatMay 74904 AF
SunMay 84510 AF
MonMay 93579 AF
TueMay 103733 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2450 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
chris
Site Admin
Posted: May 10, 2016
SMUD shared their predictions of expected average inflow to Chili Bar for this coming week as follows:

TueMay 104072 AF
WedMay 114742 AF
ThuMay 124795 AF
FriMay 134860 AF
SatMay 144612 AF
SunMay 154367 AF
MonMay 164713 AF
TueMay 174710 AF

Divide by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average flow is about 2300 cfs.  Note these are only the average flows; expect fluctuations, sometimes big ones.  Note also that this is what SMUD expect to release, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), it could be more, or less.  However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the scheduled releases.
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