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chris
Site Admin
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Posted: Jan 10, 2017 Post Subject: Chili Bar - 2017 Release Predictions
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| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Tue | Jan 10 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Jan 11 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Jan 12 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Jan 13 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Jan 14 | 7386 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Jan 15 | 7386 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Jan 16 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Jan 17 | 7386 AF | No Recreational Release
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Note that the above is what SMUD expect to release, but they don't control spill (or the weather, or snowmelt) so suggest adding a fudge factor to account for such unknowns.
Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 3700 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
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chris
Site Admin
|
| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Wed | Jan 25 | 5183 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Jan 26 | 3597 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Jan 27 | 3615 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Jan 28 | 4461 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Jan 29 | 4452 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Jan 30 | 3942 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Jan 31 | 3784 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Feb 1 | 3625 AF | No Recreational Release
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Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2250 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
|
chris
Site Admin
|
| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Wed | Feb 1 | 2152 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Feb 2 | 3195 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Feb 3 | 4061 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Feb 4 | 4411 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Feb 5 | 4164 AF | 1300 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Feb 6 | 4085 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Feb 7 | 4411 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Feb 8 | 4411 AF | No Recreational Release
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Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2200 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Posted: Feb 8, 2017Post Subject: The Chili Bar water year type has changed to Wet
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| The B120 report for February came out today, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 5.610 MAF (million acre-feet). As a result, the water year type for this month is Wet. (Yay!)
The immediate effect is that we will continue to get Saturday and Sunday releases, from 9AM until noon, but from now on the release will be 1500 cfs (instead of 1300 cfs). Even better: from March 1 onward, there will be scheduled releases every day, and weekend flows will be higher and longer than now. Good times ahead.
Of course we aren't seeing much of a difference yet, since the rains are keeping Chili Bar flows high most of the time. However, eventually the rains will taper off.
The Wet designation will persist at least until the next B120 bulletin comes out, around March 10. Check back then for an update.
In the meantime, the scheduled release page shows releases for a Wet water year type through the end of March.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Thu | Feb 9 | 4411 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Feb 10 | 4396 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Feb 11 | 4287 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Feb 12 | 3959 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Feb 13 | 4031 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Feb 14 | 4411 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Feb 15 | 4118 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Feb 16 | 4213 AF | No Recreational Release
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Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2150 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
|
chris
Site Admin
|
| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Tue | Feb 14 | 4411 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Feb 15 | 4118 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Feb 16 | 4213 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Feb 17 | 4349 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Feb 18 | 4349 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Feb 19 | 4349 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Feb 20 | 4349 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Feb 21 | 4349 AF | No Recreational Release
|
Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 2150 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
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chris
Site Admin
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| Computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact). The scheduled release page reflects this scenario.
Thanks to Jansen Wendlandt for pointing the way on the above-mentioned computations.
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chris
Site Admin
|
| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Tue | Feb 21 | 4272 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Wed | Feb 22 | 4272 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Thu | Feb 23 | 4272 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Fri | Feb 24 | 5332 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Sat | Feb 25 | 7452 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sun | Feb 26 | 7452 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Mon | Feb 27 | 7452 AF | No Recreational Release
| | Tue | Feb 28 | 7452 AF | No Recreational Release
|
Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 3700 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
|
chris
Site Admin
|
| SMUD shared their release predictions for this coming week. In the following table, 'Inflow' is the anticipated average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir, while 'Release' is the required minimum release to the river per the license agreement:
| Day | Date | Inflow | Release
| | Tue | Mar 7 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Wed | Mar 8 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Thu | Mar 9 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Fri | Mar 10 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Sat | Mar 11 | 3726 AF | 1750 cfs for 6 hours
| | Sun | Mar 12 | 3726 AF | 1750 cfs for 6 hours
| | Mon | Mar 13 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
| | Tue | Mar 14 | 3726 AF | 1500 cfs for 3 hours
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Divide 'Inflow' by 2 to get an idea of the daily average in CFS, e.g. the proposed Saturday average inflow to Chili Bar reservoir is about 1850 cfs. Expect fluctuations in flow below Chili Bar, sometimes big ones. Note that magnitude and timing of releases from Chili Bar reservoir don't necessarily co-incide with inflow, and in fact often Chili Bar releases water 'today' that was stored 'yesterday'. Nevertheless, the Inflow column can be used to guess whether more than the minimum will be released (and if so, how much more). Note also that the above is what SMUD predicts, based on their calculations ... depending on all sorts of factors (such as weather), the values show in the Inflow column could be more, or less. However, barring emergencies, you can confidently count on at least the minimum flows below Chili Bar shown in the Release column, and confirmed on the release schedule page.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for March came out yesterday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.43 MAF (million acre-feet). The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.
So wet that computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact). The scheduled release page reflects this scenario. Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
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chris
Site Admin
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| SMUD reports that "White Rock generation releases are becoming more volatile due to the evolving energy market, which continues to absorb increasing volumes of solar and wind resources, however, SMUD will assure that PG&E has sufficient water to provide the [scheduled] recreational flows".
The translation of this is that SMUD are no longer providing us with general release predictions. However, they will continue to provide at least enough water to meet the Chili Bar Release Schedule.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for April came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.43 MAF (million acre-feet), which is the same as last month. The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.
So wet that computations indicate we've already met the Wet water year requirement for the remainder of this year (until the February 2018 B120 report comes out, in fact). The scheduled release page reflects this scenario. Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
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chris
Site Admin
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| The B120 report for May came out Monday, and it predicts that the "Unimpaired Runoff" above Folsom Reservoir will be 7.81 MAF (million acre-feet), which is slighly more than last month. The result is that the water year type continues to be Wet.
This is the last B120 report for the year. The Wet designation will persist until the next B120 report comes out around February 10, 2018. See the Chili Bar scheduled release page for scheduled release flows and times.
Note though that these are only the guaranteed releases - in practice, at their discretion, SMUD/PG&E may release boatable flows any day of the week, any time. Just don't count on them if they're not on the schedule.
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